Geopolitical news has taken all the focus, while inflation continues to lurk in the background. Rising oil price adds additional inflationary pressure to an already elevated inflation level, causing The Federal Reserve to reevaluate how tight a monetary policy they intend to implement. The Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, has hinted a smaller rate hike than previously expected may be a possible in the coming weeks.

As we have seen in recent months, expectations can shift quickly and when they do, the market tends to experience bouts of volatility. These price swings can often adjust the value of future earnings and impact attractiveness in some companies for investors.

Initial reactions within the Energy sector were perhaps counterintuitive with oil prices rising slightly, but then declining following the initial round of sanctions. Natural gas prices held steady, but they too declined following the initial invasion of Ukraine and sanctions levied against Russia. However, as the crisis (and sanctions) escalated, oil prices rose sharply to close the month at $95.72 per barrel, although it had been north of $100 on intraday trading late in the month.

The invasion of Ukraine will lead to a ripple effect that may impact the global economy, and not just direct trading with Russia and Ukraine. An already disrupted supply chain is expected to worsen as a great deal of overseas goods that come by plane will be forced to take longer routes due to Russia’s restricted airspace. This leads to higher costs and potentially lighter loads, which will be a major component to negative impacts on the markets. Ukraine produces corn, wheat and barley that European countries rely on – along with nations in the Middle East and Africa. Disruptions to that supply could affect food security in those parts of the world.

Market outlook for the rest of 2022 remains unclear, but continued volatility is still expected, at least for the short-term. After the initial interest rate increase in March, the forecast will potentially be clearer.

In times of uncertainty, there can be a natural tendency for investors to make trade decisions based on emotion. At Hilltop, we disagree. It is more important now than ever to follow the data and our partnership with Helios relies on facts and quantitative research, which we utilize to continuously monitor and adjust our allocations. This leads to our models adjusting appropriately to various market conditions.