Investment Committee Meeting Highlights
June, 2023


The S&P 500 outperformed its peers as large cap stocks gained 0.43% in May. Blockbuster earnings from NVIDIA helped push technology up 9.46% in the month. On a year-to-date basis, the S&P 500 is now up 9.64% with the largest names, such as Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and now Nvidia contributing the vast majority of those gains. Other equity markets were mixed with US mid cap stocks down 2.79% and small cap stocks down nearly 1%. Internationally, developed markets were down 4.23% while emerging markets were down 0.93%.

Expectations on what the Fed will do in their mid-June meeting shifted towards the end of May, with yields on short- and intermediate-term US government bonds rising. Previously, markets had expected the Fed’s latest 25 basis point increase in May to be the last one of this cycle, a message the Fed helped direct. However, by the end of May, markets are placing bets that there is one more rate hike in June. These expectations created headwinds for the bond market as the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index fell 1.09%.

There was a lot of chatter and headlines regarding the debt ceiling throughout the month. The Treasury warned that their ability to use “extraordinary measures” to avoid default, which began in mid-January, was going to run out in early June. The risk of default raised anxiety around markets and reminded investors of 2011 when S&P downgraded the United States’ credit rating. Similarly, the political brinksmanship led Fitch, a credit rating agency, to put the United States’ credit rating on a negative watch. However, over Memorial Day weekend a deal was announced that would pause the debt ceiling until 2025 along with a freeze on nondefense spending and a few other tweaks to various programs. The House passed the deal on May 31st with expectations it would clear the Senate and be signed before the deadline.

Allow us the opportunity to build you a custom Retirement Roadmap and we’ll send you a $100 Gas Card.


May began with a bout of volatility driven by further regional banking concerns, uncertainty related to the Fed’s continued rate policy, and headlines related to the debt ceiling. Despite early losses in the S&P 500 of just over 2.5%, the remainder of the month saw the S&P 500 recover on the back of a handful of technology companies, including NVIDIA, Meta, and Amazon. The largest US companies have contributed the majority of the gains within the S&P 500 on a year-to-date basis.

The 100 largest companies of the S&P 500 have gained over 16% YTD, while the S&P 500 is up just over 10% and the S&P 500 excluding mega cap tech, is slightly negative so far in 2023. Mega cap technology stocks have been insulated from the regional banking turmoil, and further boosted by the recent demand for AI-related items, exemplified by the major surge in the value of Nvidia in late May.

The first quarter earnings season is largely over with over 490 of the S&P 500 companies having reported results. Nearly 78% of reporting companies were able to beat analysts’ earnings estimates. While companies have been able to beat earnings estimates, overall earnings have declined 2.72% according to Bloomberg. However, companies have been able to expand their top-line revenue with over 68% percent of reporting companies growing revenue and aggregate revenue growing 4.24% across the S&P 500.

Following the Federal Reserve’s May meeting, where they increased rates another 25 basis points, the market had largely expected rate hikes to be over. Fed messaging seemed to confirm this viewpoint. However, in the latter half of May, the Fed futures market started to show a change in expectations. Towards the end of the month, the markets were placing a two-thirds probability that the Fed would further raise rates in their mid-June meeting. Instead, those probabilities came down to 26.4% by the end of the month.

At a high level, the economic data continues to suggest that a recession is not imminent and remains resilient, despite facing significant risks over the past year. While positive movements in equity markets kept equity implied volatility below its 2-year average, markets continue to try to digest mixed economic news with persistent inflation, as well as trying to anticipate what the Fed may do for the rest of the year, which can lead to sudden shifts in anticipated market risks.

We remain cautiously optimistic and continue to use a quantitative investing approach. In times of uncertainty, it is more important than ever to follow the data and not make decisions based on emotions. Hilltops partnership with Helios relies on facts and data, which we use during our recalculations on a bi-weekly basis. Our models adjust appropriately to market conditions.


This update is not intended to be relied upon as forecast, research, or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment opinions expressed are as of the date noted and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this letter are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Hilltop Wealth Solutions to be reliable. The letter may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecast made will materialize. Additional information about Hilltop Wealth Solutions is available in its current disclosure documents, Form ADV, Form ADV Part 2A Brochure, and Client Relationship Summary Report which are accessible online via the SEC’s Investment Adviser Public Disclosure (IAPD) database at, using SEC # 801-115255. Hilltop Wealth Solutions is neither an attorney nor an accountant, and no portion of this content should be interpreted as legal, accounting, or tax advice.

Website Disclosures

Hilltop Wealth Solutions (“Company”) is an SEC registered investment adviser located in Mishawaka, IN with branch office located in MI and other locations throughout IN.  The Company may only transact business in those states in which it is registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements.  The Company’s web site is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links.  Accordingly, the publication of the Company’s web site on the Internet should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as the Company’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.  Any subsequent, direct communication by the Company with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualified for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.  For information pertaining to the registration status of the Company, please contact the SEC or the state securities regulators for those states in which the Company maintains a notice filing.  A copy of the Company’s current written disclosure statement discussing Company business operations, services, and fees is available by going online via the SEC’s Investment Advisers Public Disclosure (IAPD) database at, using SEC #801-115255.

The Company does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to the Company web site or incorporated herein and takes no responsibility, therefore.  All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including those undertaken or recommended by the Company, will be profitable or equal any historical performance level(s).

Certain portions of Company web site (i.e. newsletters, articles, commentaries, etc.) may contain a discussion of, and/or provide access to, the Company (and those of other investment and noninvestment professionals) positions and/or recommendations as of a specific prior date.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, such discussion may no longer be reflective of current position(s) and/or recommendation(s).  Moreover, no client or prospective client should assume that any such discussion serves as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized advice from the Company, or from any other investment professional.

The Company is neither an attorney nor an accountant, and no portion of the web site content should be interpreted as legal, accounting or tax advice.

Rankings and/or recognition by unaffiliated rating services and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if the Company is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services, nor should it be construed as a current or past endorsement of the Company by any of its clients.  Rankings published by magazines and others, generally base their selections exclusively on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized adviser.  Rankings are generally limited to participating advisers.

To the extent that any client or prospective client utilizes any economic calculator or similar interactive device contained within or linked to the Company web site, the client and/or prospective client acknowledges and understands that the information resulting from the use of any such calculator/device, is not, and should not be construed, in any manner whatsoever, as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized individual advice from the Company, or from any other investment professional.

Each client and prospective client agrees, as a condition precedent to his/her/its access to the Company web site, to release and hold harmless the Company, its officers, directors, owners, employees and agents from any and all adverse consequences resulting from any of his/her/its actions and/or omissions which are independent of his/her/its receipt of personalized individual advice from the Company.

Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards, Inc. (CFP Board) owns the CFP® certification mark, the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification mark, and the CFP® certification mark (with plaque design) logo in the United States, which it authorizes use of by individuals who successfully complete CFP Board’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.